OSINT Analyst Course

2026-07-29-F1

4 min read

Build plan — F1: The Analyst’s Mind

Goal

After this shelf the analyst can name which of their two cognitive systems produced a judgment, spot the standard intuitive traps (anchoring, availability, representativeness, substitution) in their own casework, state calibrated confidence instead of gut certainty, and treat their mental model of a target as an object to inspect rather than a lens to trust. F1 feeds every downstream shelf; L4 (analysis and judgment) builds directly on it, and the applied tracks assume it.

Architecture / sequence

Serial: F1-01 → F1-02 → F1-03 → F1-04 → F1-05. F1-01 sets the dual-process vocabulary every later card uses. F1-02 catalogues the biases that vocabulary explains. F1-03 and F1-04 apply it to confidence and to statistical intuition. F1-05 (Heuer lead) converts the Kahneman substrate into the analyst-specific mental-model discipline and hands off to L4. F1-01 is the spine’s entry card: no prerequisites, no hinge.

Global constraints (every card on this shelf)

  • Template: 00-architecture/module-card-template.md — schema + Socratic gate + light Sources convention.
  • Canon: kahneman (lead) + heuer-psych (reinforcing; lead on F1-05); sat for the traps taxonomy on F1-02. Read chapter splits in *.assets/chapters/; full.md in place; read-only.
  • Tags from course-architecture.md §9; stems fixed in §8.
  • F1 teaches cognition for OSINT work: every worked example and exercise uses concrete OSINT casework (triage, pivoting, dossier judgment calls), never abstract lab vignettes alone.
  • Tactile rule (operator, 2026-07-30): practical exercises run on real, live data the student can actually touch (often the student themselves, their own footprint, or live public records), never simulated/imagined subjects. Worked examples prefer real operator casework (anonymized as needed).
  • Real-world examples rule (operator, 2026-07-30): every framing scenario, desk frame, and worked example on every card uses a real, named, publicly verifiable case (operator casework or public record, e.g. F1-01’s Apex / Golden Age FZE and Alfa y Gama / CJNG OFAC designation). No invented subjects anywhere on a card; real cases stick in the student’s mind.
  • Humanizer pass on all prose; no em dashes (hard gate); IC voice; no hype.

Sources in play (this shelf)

source-idtitleowns (what this shelf draws from it)
kahnemanThinking, Fast and SlowSystem 1/2 architecture; cognitive ease; WYSIATI; anchoring; availability; representativeness; substitution; small numbers; regression; planning fallacy; inside/outside view; framing
heuer-psychPsychology of Intelligence Analysisperception/mental models; mind-sets; “more information ≠ better analysis”; analyst-specific bias framing
satStructured Analytic Techniquescognitive-limitations taxonomy (18 traps) — F1-02 cross-reference only

Cards

F1-01 — Two minds · status: DONE

  • Stem: F1-01-two-minds (§8).
  • Prerequisites: [] · Tags: [cognitive-bias]
  • Lead source: kahneman · Supporting: heuer-psych
  • Concepts to mine: the System 1 / System 2 characters and division of labor; attention and effort (the lazy controller); cognitive ease vs strain; WYSIATI / the machine for jumping to conclusions; answering the easier question (substitution, intro only — deep treatment is F1-02); what this means for an OSINT analyst’s default settings during triage and pivoting.
  • Loop:
    • MINE — source locations returned for concepts in scope
    • DRAFT — card written from mined locations + template
    • VERIFY — Conformance PASS (b10cd673 full pass-with-flags; flags cleared + re-verified 9559ad5d)
    • GATE — operator approved 2026-07-30 (bat-and-ball calibrate; Alfa y Gama / CJNG desk frame; Apex worked example; contractor-screen exercise; Nudge lines on all Qs)
  • Notes / variants: none doctrinal; Mermaid candidate: the two-system division-of-labor diagram (recreation cite “after Kahneman Part 1”).

F1-02 — Cognitive biases & intuitive traps · status: PLANNED

  • Stem: F1-02-cognitive-biases · Prerequisites: [F1-01] · Tags: [cognitive-bias]
  • Lead: kahneman · Supporting: heuer-psych, sat (18-trap taxonomy pointer).
  • Concepts: anchoring; availability; representativeness and base-rate neglect; substitution (full); affect heuristic; Heuer’s analyst framing of the same traps.

F1-03 — Overconfidence & calibration · status: PLANNED

  • Stem: F1-03-overconfidence-calibration · Prerequisites: [F1-01, F1-02] · Tags: [calibration, cognitive-bias]
  • Lead: kahneman.
  • Concepts: illusion of validity; illusion of understanding; planning fallacy; inside vs outside view; calibrated confidence language (bridge toward L4-08).

F1-04 — Judgment under uncertainty · status: PLANNED

  • Stem: F1-04-judgment-under-uncertainty · Prerequisites: [F1-01, F1-02] · Tags: [cognitive-bias, calibration]
  • Lead: kahneman.
  • Concepts: law of small numbers; regression to the mean; framing and loss aversion; intuitions vs formulas (when to trust simple structure over expert gut).

F1-05 — Mental models & mindsets · status: PLANNED

  • Stem: F1-05-mental-models-mindset · Prerequisites: [F1-01, F1-02, F1-03] · Tags: [cognitive-bias, hypothesis-testing]
  • Lead: heuer-psych · Supporting: kahneman.
  • Concepts: perception as construction; mind-sets are quick to form, resistant to change; why more information raises confidence faster than accuracy; the mental model as inspectable object; hand-off to L4.

Definition of done (shelf)

  • Every card: GATE checked, status DONE.
  • index.md card table matches the built cards; course-architecture.md §3 status row updated.
  • Every inbound [[wikilink]] to these stems now resolves.

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