F1 · The Analyst’s Mind
Taught first. The cognitive operating system before any tradecraft: how System 1 and System 2 set the analyst’s defaults, where heuristics and biases mislead, how overconfidence and poor calibration corrupt judgment, and why more information does not equal better judgment. Calibrate the analyst before teaching the analysis. Lead canon: Kahneman; Heuer-Psych leads the bridge card (F1-05).
Cards
| ID | Card |
|---|---|
| F1-01 | Two minds: System 1 / System 2, WYSIATI, the analyst’s default settings (pattern-setter) |
| F1-02 | Cognitive biases & intuitive traps: anchoring, availability, representativeness, substitution |
| F1-03 | Overconfidence & calibration: illusion of validity, planning fallacy, inside vs outside view |
| F1-04 | Judgment under uncertainty: small numbers, regression to the mean, framing |
| F1-05 | Mental models & mindsets: why more information raises confidence faster than accuracy (bridge to L4) |
Status, lead sources, and the live card table: course-architecture §3.
Notes
- Lead canon: Kahneman (F1-01 to F1-04) · Heuer-Psych (F1-05 lead; biases reinforcing) · SAT 18 traps (reinforcing on F1-02).
- This is the course’s cognitive-calibration layer: the “how judgment works” that the whole intelligence process (L1 to L5) rests on. Taught once, first; composed by every later card.
- F1-05 is the deliberate bridge into L4 (mental models, diagnosticity, ACH).
- Every card carries an OSINT-leaning worked example on a real case.