G · Forecast / Estimative — Applied Track
- Shape: G FORECAST · Depth: Deep · Deliverables: 8
- Composes core: L1-06 (indicators) · all of L4 (judgment, ACH, scenarios, estimative language) · L5
- Anchored on: Clark (prediction methodology, I&W) + SAT (multiple scenarios, foresight) + ICD 203 probability
- Collection-map shape:
_SHAPES.md§G (root = a question / topic / program)
Deliverables this track teaches toward
| # | Deliverable |
|---|---|
| 029 | intelligence-estimate ⭐ the deep one — anchors the capstone |
| 037 | strategic-forecast-and-estimate |
| 038 | scenario-alternative-futures-analysis |
| 039 | horizon-scan-emerging-threats-report |
| 040 | indicators-and-warning-iandw-program |
| 041 | probabilistic-forecasting-dashboard |
| 061 | real-time-situational-monitoring |
| 062 | crisis-monitoring-dashboard-common-operating-picture |
Planned cards
| ID | Card | Serves |
|---|---|---|
| G-01 | The intelligence estimate (NIE-style) — Deep; re-integrates the whole core | 029 |
| G-02 | Strategic forecast & estimate | 037 |
| G-03 | Scenario / alternative-futures analysis | 038 |
| G-04 | Horizon scanning / emerging threats | 039 |
| G-05 | Indications & warning program | 040 |
| G-06 | Probabilistic forecasting & dashboards (Brier, calibration) | 041 |
| G-07 | Real-time situational & crisis monitoring (COP) | 061, 062 |